Analysis of the reasons for the most promising fut

Analysis of reasons for optimistic outlook on PVC

there is a possibility of rebound in the outlook for PVC. The reasons are as follows: 1. Policy support learned from PVC manufacturers that recently, China's economic and Trade Commission has accelerated the investigation of PVC anti-dumping, and manufacturers are also paying close attention to improving the contents of the questionnaire. It is revealed that the economic and Trade Commission will publish the investigation results as soon as the first half of the year, and take corresponding protective measures

in addition, in order to cooperate with the relevant national policies, the Customs recently decided that the verification regulation of "tensile force, pressure and universal material testing machine" is more suitable for the verification of hydraulic universal material testing machine for 4 and 1. In May, imported PVC will be subject to a unified tariff of 700 US dollars/ton (CIF) to protect the domestic industry

2. The cost of raw materials is still high

although the market price of PVC may fall due to the weakening demand, affected by it, the price of raw materials edc/vcm also shows signs of decline, but EDC is very serious because the global supply exceeds demand, and the strong price trend is difficult to change in the short term. Generally, the price is still relatively high, and the cost of PVC manufacturers produced by petroleum method is relatively high

3. Social inventory has decreased

according to the news from traders, the viscosity of PVC SG (7) or PVC SG (8) is low, and the daily sales volume has decreased, Downstream user inventory "It is also quite limited, and the social inventory will decrease. 4. The supply and demand side will change. In the quarter of last year, China imported 1million tons of PVC powder. It is estimated that it will decrease slightly in the same period this year, especially adjusting the distance between the main body and the force measuring device according to the shape and foundation map, and adjusting the direction is that the general trade volume will be significantly reduced. At the same time, the possibility of quarterly domestic supply reduction is also great. Canghua, Qilu and other manufacturers will be overhauled in April and may, and are also affected by The shortage of raw materials has affected the load of PVC manufacturers, which has resulted in a decrease in PVC production compared with last year. In addition, the month of previous years is the peak season of PVC demand, so the future supply and demand side will change to a certain extent, which is conducive to the stability of the PVC market

to sum up, there is still a possibility of rebound in the future market of domestic PVC. On April 22, after negotiation, PVC manufacturers decided to adhere to the current ex factory price. The reason why manufacturers regain confidence in the future market is the above points