Behind the sharp rise of the hottest papermaking c

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Behind the sharp rise of papermaking concept stocks: rising costs, upside down profits, paper mills' active shutdown

release date: Source: Beijing News Views: 1446 copyright and disclaimer

core tip: affected by the rising cost of raw materials, paper prices have risen. "I don't plan to deliver these two days, press it again", Wang Wen is the person in charge of a waste paper packaging station in Jiangsu Province. Recently, the paper factory has five consecutive rounds of

"I don't plan to deliver these two days, press it again", Wang Wen is the person in charge of a waste paper packaging station in Jiangsu Province. Recently, the paper factory has five consecutive rounds of price increases, and he still has more than ten cars of goods in his hand. He is ready to wait and sell

on May 26, a shares opened, and the paper sector continued to rise. As of 9:40, Yueyang forest paper's share price rose sharply and closed the daily limit. It has been trading for four consecutive days for nearly four trading days, with a total market value of 15.47 billion shares, followed by Yibin Paper 4.59%, Qingshan Paper 4.03%, Wuzhou special paper 3.11%, Guanhao high tech 2.89%, Qifeng new material 2.81%, while the new share Yiyi shares continued to rise the limit, seven consecutive boards since its listing on May 18

according to the data of the research report released by Orient Securities on May 23, the price of finished paper white cardboard has risen since May last year due to the impact of the plastic order, and the average price has risen from 5000/ton to nearly 10000/ton now; The average price of coated paper has also risen from about 5000/ton in May last year to about 7000/ton now; The price of double offset paper for cultural paper has risen rapidly since the end of last year, with the average price rising from about 5000/ton to 7000/ton today

recently, the prices of the above three paper varieties have fallen, while the carton board for packaging has risen again after the correction. According to the data of Orient Securities, the average price of carton board paper rose from the highest of 4000/ton in May last year to close to 5000/ton in March this year, then began to fall back, and resumed its rise in the recent week

according to the average tax inclusive market price of finished paper calculated by zhuochuang information, the prices of double offset paper, coated paper and white cardboard fell by 90/ton, 64/ton and 54/ton respectively last week (may 17-21); The average ex factory price of carton board increased by 117/ton

a senior light industry analyst at a domestic securities firm told shell Finance: "since late February, many paper-making enterprises have been shut down for maintenance, mainly due to the reduction of raw material supply, resulting in rising costs, and enterprises are also very helpless."

the recycling rate of waste paper reached 90%, surpassing Japan, Europe and the United States.

raw materials soared, and some paper mills "shut down"

on May 25, CCTV reported that at present, the recycling rate of waste paper in China has reached 90%, surpassing Japan, Europe and the United States and other developed countries, but there is still a huge gap in waste paper

"we have to raise prices", said Wang Wen. He learned from his profession that at 7:30 a.m. on May 25, there were 18 delivery trucks at the gate of a paper factory in Dongguan

as for the reasons for the rise in paper prices, the research released by China Securities on May 25 pointed out that since May, major domestic cultural paper enterprises and traders have issued price increase letters again. Among them, the price of cultural paper has generally increased by 200/ton, while the price of white cardboard has increased by 1000/ton

"at present, the industry profit is upside down, which has never been seen before. Now all our production lines are under construction, but some factories near us have not been under construction after years." Chen Haiou (a pseudonym) said to him that he is the head of a household paper mill. "About 70% of the cost of papermaking comes from the pulp price. A friend of mine also does this. In March, at least half of the production lines were stopped. When the profit was at its worst, it was more than 700 per ton, close to 800. Now it is still upside down, but it is better than before."

According to China Securities, due to high costs, many paper-making enterprises have announced shutdown and overhaul since March. The reason behind this is that the supply gap caused by the reduction of long fiber raw materials and imported paper began to appear, and the price of pulp raw materials rose, causing the upside down of pulp and paper prices

in May this year, the wholly-owned subsidiary of Anxin securities, SDIC Anxin Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SDIC Anxin") visited and investigated some paper-making enterprises in Henan Province, Hebei Province, and issued a research report on May 25, pointing out that household paper enterprises generally suffered losses, less than half of the work in Hebei was started, and enterprises generally reported that the terminal demand was poor. Some enterprises with low-cost pulp inventory in the early stage still reluctantly maintained their work, but the pulp inventory was not large, The production of pulp purchased from stock is basically in a state of loss. Therefore, when the low-cost stock pulp is exhausted in the later stage, household paper may face a rise

wrapping paper is another scene. SDIC Anxin pointed out that due to the implementation of the waste prohibition order, the purchase cost of waste paper in the packaging paper industry has increased significantly, but at the same time, the terminal demand is strong, the downstream orders are good, and the enterprise inventory is not high, so the price transmission in the industrial chain is very smooth, and enterprises are still raising prices continuously

in addition, Guohai Securities also pointed out that waste paper is the main raw material of corrugated paper and box board paper. Affected by the overseas epidemic and the sharp rise in sea freight, the import volume will decline significantly this year, the total supply of domestic raw materials will decline, and the cost of raw material waste paper will be at a medium high level. Subsequently, as box board paper gradually enters the peak season, coupled with the ban on waste, the limited import of finished paper Under the combined effect of the plastic ban and the demand growth brought by online consumption, the paper price has a high probability of maintaining the upward trend

share prices of many listed companies soared

the stronger the paper industry is, the stronger the "Matthew effect" intensifies

some paper-making concept stocks have recently recorded large increases. Yueyang forest paper, Yibin Paper and Qingshan Paper all increased by more than 20% in the past three trading days (May 21, 24 and 25), with cumulative increases of 33.16%, 21.33% and 21.14% respectively. Among them, Yueyang forest paper has recorded three consecutive boards

according to the data of Dongfang fortune choice, there are 24 paper-making concept stocks in A-share market. Since this year, a total of 7 listed companies have increased their share prices by more than 30%, namely, Yiyi shares 131.88%, Yueyang forest paper 85.92%, Yibin Paper 81.27%, Zhongshun jierou 61.76%, Chenming paper 61.68%, Qingshan Paper 44.44 and Qifeng new material 32.85%, of which Yiyi shares are new shares this year

Yueyang Forest Paper Co., Ltd., a listed company, was listed on the main board of Shanghai Stock Exchange on May 2, 2004 and may 5, 2014. The company is mainly engaged in the production of cultural paper, industrial paper and packaging paper. At the same time, based on the forest pulp paper industry, it extends to the ecological industry and is engaged in forestry price: price is one of the major factors considered by the purchaser. Survey and design, forest carbon asset management, landscape design, garden engineering construction and maintenance, ecological governance, etc

from 2018 to 2020, the operating revenue of Yueyang forest paper was 7.013 billion, 7.106 billion and 7.116 billion respectively, and the net profits attributable to shareholders of listed companies were 366 million, 313 million and 414 million respectively

in 2020, the pulp and paper industry, municipal gardens, forestry, real estate, chemical industry, construction and installation industry, and sewage treatment contributed about 4.670 billion, 1.427 billion, 279 million, 214 million, 203 million, 69.87 million, and 54.59 million to Yueyang forest paper, respectively, of which the gross profit margin of the chemical industry and pulp and paper industry was more than 20%, 42.09% and 21.58% respectively

the market shows that since the beginning of this year, the share price of Yueyang forest paper has risen from 4.19/share to the closing price of 7.79/share on May 25. In the past three trading days, it has harvested three limit boards in a row, and the cumulative increase of the share price since the beginning of the year has reached 85.92%

on May 25, Yueyang forest paper disclosed the stock trading risk warning announcement, but it did not mention the rise in paper prices, but "forestry carbon sink". Yueyang Linzhi pointed out that the company verified that, except for the small amount involved in the cooperation with shell energy (China) Co., Ltd. in 2017, which did not meet the disclosure standard, the company currently has no business income related to forestry carbon sequestration trading, and it is expected that it will not have a significant impact on the company's profits in the short term

Yueyang forest paper pointed out in its 2020 annual report that pulp board is the most important raw material for paper. In 2020, the price of pulp board was at a relatively low level. From November, the price of pulp board began to rise sharply. During the reporting period, the stronger the paper industry, the stronger the "Matthew effect" is still intensifying, and the industry concentration is further improving

the performance of the paper sector in the first quarter is good

many listed companies have laid out upstream

"under the price rise of raw materials, some companies with upstream layout and multiple categories of products will be relatively less affected, and they can even benefit from this round of price rise, further improving the concentration of the industry. At the same time, for the requirements of the national carbon peak, the paper enterprises with upstream layout will also have greater price space and bargaining power in the future." The aforementioned industry analysts said to

at present, some leading papermaking enterprises in China have tried to distribute production capacity in countries rich in overseas forest resources. Nine Dragons Paper has acquired two paper mills and pulp mills in the United States, and has built a paper-making capacity of 1.6 million tons in Vietnam; Shanying paper has acquired or controlled many pulp and paper mills in Sweden, Norway and other countries; Sun paper will build a paper mill pulp plant in Laos to ensure the supply of raw materials

Shandong Sun Paper Co., Ltd., a listed company, was listed on the small and medium-sized board of Shenzhen Stock Exchange in November 2006. The company is mainly engaged in the production and sales of machine-made paper, paper products, wood pulp and paperboard. Its main paper products include uncoated cultural paper, coated paper, kraft linerboard, etc

according to the 2020 annual report of sun paper, the company began to enter Laos in 2008 and acquired Bola Laos pulp planting Co., Ltd. in 2018. At present, the company has an annual production capacity of 300000 tons of dissolved pulp, 800000 tons of high-grade packaging paper and 400000 tons of recycled fiber pulp in Laos

2018 to 2daron reg; Resin is a perfect combination of product performance and process performance. In 2020, sun paper achieved operating revenues of 21.768 billion, 22.763 billion and 21.589 billion respectively, and realized net profits attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 2.238 billion, 2.178 billion and 1.953 billion. In 2020, pulp and paper products, electricity and steam and chemical products accounted for 20.637 billion, 795 million and 15.15 million respectively. Among them, the gross profit margins of pulp and paper products and electricity and steam are 18.83% and 30.99% respectively

however, since May this year, the share price of sun paper has not shown a brilliant performance. It has experienced a large increase from January to February this year, with the share price rising from 14.43 per share to 21.75 per share on February 23, with a cumulative increase of 50.73%, and then began to fall

as of the close of May 25, sun paper's share price was 15.00/share, with a total market value of 39.37 billion, ranking second among the 24 papermaking concept stocks after Zhongshun jierou's 44.28 billion

looking at the performance of the first quarter of this year, all 24 papermaking concept stocks recorded year-on-year growth without any loss. Among them, Qifeng new material, Chenming paper, Qingshan Paper, Bohui paper and forest packaging achieved a year-on-year increase in net profits attributable to shareholders of listed companies by 536.77%, 481.42% and 446 respectively in the first quarter of this year, which is a prestigious specification in the world and is revised every year 81%, 337.24 and 250.56%, ranking among the top five paper concept stocks

from the absolute value of net profit, in the first quarter of this year, Chenming paper, sun paper, Bohui paper, Shanying international and Huatai shares achieved net profits attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 1.179 billion, 1.108 billion, 811 million, 474 million and 327 million respectively, ranking among the top five paper concept stocks

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