Behind the rise in the price of the hottest memory

2022-08-12
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Behind the rise in memory module prices: manufacturers have moved their production capacity to higher profit businesses

from the latest data, the output of the global memory industry has become a strong combination this year! Graphene flame retardant EPS material was the first to realize industrialization in Changzhou, with a growth rate of nearly 20%, lower than the level in recent years. The spot market price rose sharply this month. Among the three product categories of PC memory, server memory and mobile memory, the price rise was mainly concentrated on PC memory. Now let's take a look at the relevant content together with the network communication

pc memory module is facing an unprecedented price rise. At present, the 4G contract price of DDR is only $30 at the beginning, but the spot price has reached $and this situation will continue in the short term

as an oligopoly market, behind the soaring price of memory modules, Samsung Electronics, micron technology and SK Hynix memory manufacturers are undergoing a relatively consistent strategic shift: they have moved their production capacity to higher profit server memory and mobile memory businesses, while memory module manufacturers will give priority to meeting the needs of large customers such as HP and Dell, and do not care about the spot market price, Therefore, this round of soaring prices has been formed

Jibang consulting predicts that next year, the memory industry will still be controlled by the three major memory factories, and the production capacity will have the opportunity to maintain the high-end water level in the first half of next year when the factories are unwilling to increase significantly, and the memory market is still in a tight supply pattern

but the variables still exist, and the oligarchs seem to change their strategies unanimously. Recently, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix began to plan to expand DRAM capacity, which means that it is possible that in, the memory market will be in a situation where supply manager rimara said it needs to be balanced or even oversupplied. This is the key stage for domestic memory related manufacturers to initially achieve mass production, and the downward price trend is often very unfavorable to new entrants. Under such a pattern, it may take years for domestic manufacturers to occupy a place in the world

strategic transformation

profit pursuit is the direct reason for the strategic transformation of the three major factories. In terms of gross profit margin, compared with PC memory, which has been at the level of% gross profit margin, the gross profit margin of mobile memory and server memory has reached%. Among them, mobile memory is used for intelligence, and its stock in the global market has always maintained the current level, while server memory is more widely used. With the development of emerging markets, server memory will usher in a broader market prospect

the strategic transformation of oligarchs will not have an impact on big brand manufacturers such as HP and Dell, because the upstream will give priority to meeting the needs of major customers, which is very detrimental to small and medium-sized brands. At the same time, the price will certainly be transmitted to consumers, but with the support of the Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission, consumers are not sensitive to the price of PC machines, and it is the consumers who assemble PC machines themselves that are really affected

according to official news, recently Samsung plans to set up a factory in pingze to expand DRAM capacity, and on October 29, SK Hynix also announced that it will set up a factory in Wuxi, China to expand DRAM capacity. The oligarchs' production expansion plan is likely to alleviate the continuous rise in PC memory prices

in terms of specific influence, since SK Hynix's production line has just been built, it is expected that the production capacity will be at least one and a half years later, while Samsung Electronics' production line in pingze is ready to start at any time. This means that Samsung Electronics' production expansion plan will be a key factor in reversing the rise in memory prices

critical moment

from the perspective of Samsung's strategy, there are two possibilities in the future. First, the expanded capacity scale is enough to fill the current demand gap, which will ease the current round of price rise; Second, it is planned to expand more production capacity, so the price of PC memory will show a downward trend by the second half of next year. At present, Samsung Electronics has not publicly disclosed the relevant plans for the expansion scale, so it is still a variable

if Samsung adopts the second strategy, it may be disadvantageous to the rising domestic semiconductor manufacturers, because the year is a critical period for the domestic storage industry. The three manufacturers, Changjiang storage, Hefei Changxin and Fujian Jinhua, which belong to the "purple light system", are expected to initially achieve mass production during this period. For semiconductor, a high input industry, new entrants are bound to lose money, but entering the market at the stage of price decline means paying higher costs

judging from the current progress of domestic manufacturers, it is difficult to pose a threat to oligarchs within this year. During our investigation, the construction progress of these manufacturers is still behind schedule. They are also aware of the difficulty of this industry. It is not only financial support that can achieve the goal, but also intellectual property rights

for memory production, the machine is mainly composed of drive system, transmission system, control system, high and low temperature experimental devices, etc. so far, it has developed for 30 or 40 years. All modules and parts of a commodity have strict intellectual property protection, and fighting a patent war has become a common means of market competition. For new entrants, the only thing they can do is to mass produce as soon as possible, expand their own strength and do a good job in products, so that they are qualified to negotiate with the original factory

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