China's economy is expected to open a relatively s

2022-07-30
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China's economy is expected to open a relatively stable medium and high speed growth stage

China's economy is expected to open a relatively stable medium and high speed growth stage

China Construction Machinery Information

"Based on a comprehensive analysis of internal and external conditions, China's economy can achieve the growth in the predicted stable range, and accumulate more favorable conditions for entering a sustainable medium to high-speed growth, so as to promote the early realization of stable, healthy and sustainable development. Only by meeting the needs of the market," Li Wei, director of the development research center of the State Council, said at the "national research think tank forum · New Year Forum 2017" held on February 18

Li Wei said that in 2016, China's economy was generally stable, showing positive changes in PPI and corporate profits from a year-on-year decline to an increase, and the unemployment rate fell instead of an increase. To a large extent, this shows that the risk of a rapid decline in China's economic growth has decreased significantly, stable factors have increased, quality and efficiency improvement are being actively promoted, and the L-shaped growth trend is expected to transition from a "vertical" to a relatively stable "horizontal"

from the perspective of the three major demands, China's economy is expected to show a slight drop in investment growth, stable consumption growth and positive export from negative in 2017. He analyzed and pointed out that the growth rate of investment this year is expected to slow down slightly, of which the infrastructure investment can still maintain a double-digit high-speed growth, the growth rate of real estate investment will drop significantly compared with last year, the manufacturing investment will continue to stabilize, and the growth rate is expected to rise slightly. At the same time, consumption is still the main driving force of economic growth. With the gradual digestion of the impact of the dollar appreciation, the fundamentals of emerging economies have improved, commodity prices have stabilized, the foreign trade environment has improved, and the export situation will improve

Li Wei believes that in the medium and long term, China's economic growth has further narrowed down. From the development experience of Japan, South Korea and other countries, the stage of economic growth has changed from high-speed growth to medium speed growth. The decline in economic growth usually reaches 40% to 50%. After this round of adjustment, China's economy has approached this level. In recent years, the decline has narrowed year by year, and the space for further decline has gradually narrowed. China's economy has the foundation for gradual stabilization. More importantly, in 2016, China's economic restructuring achieved preliminary results, some important indicators showed a preliminary recovery trend, and China's economy is expected to start a relatively stable medium and high-speed growth stage

"from the perspective of risk prevention, the prevention and control of financial risks should be put in a more important position in 2017." Li Wei said that at present, there are three risk amplification mechanisms: one is the implicit guarantee of the government; the other is that some places still have the risk of increasing debt and overcapacity simply by pursuing speed; and the third is the lack of management capacity in the opening up of the financial industry. In this regard, in 2017, we should strengthen the bottom line thinking, resolve to speed up the disposal and elimination of a number of risk points, and firmly hold the bottom line against systemic and regional financial risks

Li Wei said that the upward driving force and downward pressure of economic operation in 2017 are still in a weak balance. To start a new growth stage and achieve sustainable medium and high-speed growth, we need to strive to achieve the following four basic conditions:

first, the investment in manufacturing industry has stabilized. Manufacturing investment, especially private investment, is the basis for economic stability, and there is still great uncertainty in the willingness of enterprises to invest; Second, effectively resolve financial risks. Although the non-performing asset ratio of banks using the 3-angle elevation method has decreased slightly (the non-performing asset ratio of banks fell to 1.74% in the fourth quarter of 2016), the risks of non bank financial sectors are also emerging, and the financial environment needs to be further improved; Third, enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory has increased. The inventory decline of industrial enterprises has improved, but the willingness to replenish inventory is vulnerable to the external environment. Whether the willingness to replenish inventory can continue remains to be seen; Fourth, substantive progress has been made in the reform of key areas and key links. The positive incentive mechanism for reform needs to be established and improved, breakthroughs need to be made in the reform of state-owned enterprises, land system, finance and other fields, and some institutional obstacles need to be removed

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