"Sunset" China DCS market 2010 awesome insufficient
introduction: in 2010, the decline of distributed control system (DCS) market has exceeded the expectation of the overall market. At first, it was thought that the considerable service market compensated for the rapidly declining hardware business, and the DCS market could be flat as a whole. In fact, the overall market fell by more than 7% in, and the overall performance of DCS market will be better than that of discrete automation, but the recovery speed lags behind that of discrete automation. It can be seen that in 2010, the whole DCS market has shown a declining trend, and awesome is seriously insufficient
in fact, although the DCS market did not show a stronger growth in 2010, there are signs of gradual improvement. In the field of process automation, most companies are quite close to or slightly exceed the performance in 2009. Some businesses have recovered quickly, while others have been relatively slow. The current situation of DCS market is that the installed business can bring more stable returns than the project-based business; While new projects are delayed or cancelled, suppliers have digested a large number of project certificates of deposit. In the first half of 2011, growth is expected to accelerate, but it is difficult to approach the same level before the recession. From a historical point of view, the process automation market has the characteristics of slow but stable growth. The author expects the market to return to this growth mode and achieve an average compound annual growth rate of 4% within the five-year expectation
through the development status of DCS market in 2010, the growth proportion and trend of each business module are analyzed. The author summarizes the following for reference:
1. Service business is still the core of DCS market growth.
service business has always been the main body of DCS business, and project services and after-sales or operation services account for more than half of the total turnover. In 2009, the service market can still maintain an upward trend, but in fact, both project services and operation services show a downward trend. The reason is that many large projects have been shelved or will continue to be shelved; Many user companies have also cut their travel budgets, which has impacted the training business. Both of these aspects have been improved rapidly in 2010, and the project services will continue to have a steady upward trend, especially in the fields of power generation, upstream oil and gas, water treatment, biological processing and renewable energy
2. DCS technology has become mature. Horizontal application requires that the strain at a certain point of an elastic element is significantly proportional to the force on the elastic element.
in fact, in recent years, the technology involved in the basic DCS architecture in China has become very mature. Major DCS manufacturers in the world are also constantly upgrading their technologies. For example, the field data collected by DCs are further processed by using advanced database technology and communication technology in combination with the actual process of users, so as to provide users with greater value-added effect
at present, each DCS usually adopts the following ways: one is to provide optimization software for some process flows, which can enable users to improve production efficiency; The other is to add functions, such as adding equipment maintenance functions, analyzing equipment thermal stress and mechanical fault status in more detail, and judging whether equipment needs maintenance by monitoring equipment operation status, so as to reduce accidental shutdown and improve equipment utilization. In addition, another way is to combine with user management and participate in the user's whole plant information system
in a word, through the expansion of technology, the application of DCS must be more closely combined with the user's process, management and production, so as to profoundly change the connotation of DCS market
3. Opportunities and challenges coexist at the turning point of technology
DCS developed late in China and began to be popularized gradually at the end of 1980s. At present, it is still in the stage of gradual popularization from large-scale projects to small and medium-sized projects, and gradual expansion from the main application fields (such as petrochemical, chemical, electric power, metallurgy and other industries) to the whole industrial scope (such as municipal administration, food, building materials, environmental protection, transportation, etc.). The market is far from saturated, and there is still a large space. According to statistics, at present, there are more than 100000 domestic enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises with annual sales of more than 5million yuan. Their technological transformation provides a huge market space for DCS. Therefore, in order to occupy a place in the world market, enterprises must improve the level of modernization and labor productivity. Therefore, in the near future, a large number of domestic enterprises will adopt 15 advanced dcs100 billion yuan or more to transform traditional industries
under China's special national conditions, several professional DCS production companies have emerged, and their development momentum is very good, which has certain historical reasons. The initial development and technology accumulation were carried out under the system of state-owned enterprises; Under the planned economic system, it can continue to promote high-quality development and innovative development, so as to have more in-depth access to the technology and functions of the imported DCS; The later development has received some economic support from the state
now, this stage has passed. We should rely on our own strength to continue to develop and become bigger and stronger, which will bring huge economic pressure to the existing enterprises. The author believes that at the turning point of DCS technology, domestic automation enterprises, such as Hollysys, central control, Xinhua, Guodian and Yingkong, must consider strategic issues such as business modules and future development focus, which are both opportunities and challenges